Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.883748 21.634243 23.569515 25.888156 28.618566 31.768167 35.731578
2024-12-22 17.160946 19.433410 22.130581 25.639154 30.197873 36.102898 44.677245
2024-12-29 15.323605 17.859048 21.030429 25.430050 31.636727 40.569237 55.562452
2025-01-05 14.004111 16.685479 20.180170 25.290833 33.033646 45.328611 69.328551
2025-01-12 12.856595 15.566936 19.208772 24.754798 33.653720 49.031530 83.717854
2025-01-19 12.390389 15.282930 19.310518 25.751500 36.865227 58.409090 119.221930
2025-01-26 11.672424 14.568703 18.695597 25.514465 37.891974 64.043756 153.814370
2025-02-02 11.138955 14.060070 18.315612 25.576632 39.456432 71.662148 213.582689
2025-02-09 10.712352 13.664485 18.056184 25.785953 41.348734 81.283532 326.322536
2025-02-16 10.304883 13.261929 17.740125 25.838255 42.923755 91.249409 542.874268
2025-02-23 9.875775 12.795201 17.276877 25.552928 43.678295 99.373359 958.382870
2025-03-02 9.551244 12.464582 17.003382 25.581087 45.181033 111.767780 3047.562041
2025-03-09 9.197242 12.072978 16.607292 25.341862 46.032365 123.044024 NaN
2025-03-16 8.871934 11.708099 16.229423 25.094792 46.827254 135.578332 NaN
2025-03-23 8.580939 11.381247 15.892311 24.889969 47.705423 150.472193 NaN
2025-03-30 8.324503 11.095488 15.605288 24.754253 48.765056 169.161424 NaN
2025-04-06 8.028958 10.732982 15.160912 24.236456 48.565609 179.482470 NaN
2025-04-13 7.973045 10.752562 15.389431 25.197479 53.319332 247.797663 NaN
2025-04-20 7.752520 10.492564 15.098353 24.968798 54.098107 282.005131 NaN
2025-04-27 7.585464 10.312840 14.941577 25.028673 55.945906 345.774271 NaN
2025-05-04 7.447062 10.174001 14.850421 25.230445 58.435470 453.237688 NaN
2025-05-11 7.297938 10.010524 14.702847 25.280847 60.398246 594.399357 NaN
2025-05-18 7.118384 9.788744 14.433107 25.005766 60.954341 719.058129 NaN